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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2026-05-06T22:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-05-06T22:00Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/46015/-1
CME Note: Very faint CME first seen to the S in SOHO LASCO C2 starting around 2026-05-06T22:00Z. It is also seen to the S in SOHO LASCO C3 and GOES CCOR-1 but is covered by a real-time data gap in STEREO A COR2. There are two source candidates for this CME. The first is an eruption from AR 14431 beginning around 2026-05-06T16:20Z best seen in SDO AIA 304. The second and more likely source candidate is a filament eruption beginning around 2026-05-06T19:00Z. The filament spans approximately S30-40E00-30 and is best seen lifting off in SDO AIA 304. Preliminarily closing this event as a non-arrival at L1.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-05-10T18:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME
Lead Time: 88.70 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2026-05-07T01:18Z
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